never rat on your friends, and always keep your mouth shut

Saturday, December 31, 2005

why is jack mcdowell 1-1 through 3 games?

perhaps this isn't the job of the last place guy, BUT you have to click on manager's office (the imperceptible text underneath the picture of thurman munson) and designate starter 1, starter 2, starter 3. otherwise josh beckett will continue starting on negative 1 days rest.



p.s. pete thanks for the heads up on this one.

jeff reardon?

my theoretical fantasy baseball team looks pretty awful so far. i brought 1981 jeff reardon in long relief for 6 innings, and he got shelled. 1905 weldon henley has started three consecutive games. i don't think i have enough pitchers. fuck.


Does anyone have the first season of 24 on DVD? I got caught watching about 4 episodes today on A&E and now I need to know what happens. That shit is like crack. Omar, I'm looking at you for this one. Also, I still owe you $50, don't I? Fuck.

Thursday, December 29, 2005


well the problem is that in a standard league there are is no slugging or obp or ops. homers and to a lesser extent, rbi, are the only way to value a power hitter that has a middling average (see Paul Konerko for most of 2004). there are two issues for stats that we need to contend with

1) how many stat categories? 5 x5, 6x6? i think we should keep them even because uneven stat categories get strange.
2) which stats? i thought we had some consensus stats but when i look again everything is in contention. do blogs let you have a voting system? could we setup up an espn-like vote where you list half a dozen stat varieties and they get voted on confidence pick style. if you want the standard stats you give it a 6, then the next best a 5, etc. that way everyone can vote (only once, while it is chicago not everyone should vote early and often) and we can come up with the best option.

For the main league, i assume we will end up drafting in the same snake-draft way as every year. Will we have access to usite again this year ben? and can we try not to schedule the draft during an elite eight u of i game? they probably wont make it to the elite eight but still.

and how can i become a john roberts clerk? i've got nothing better to do and i have a feeling i'd be the only one who wants the job.

my vote for stats: standard 5x5.

new old kind of science

i already published this sentiment in andy's post as a comment but i want to reiterate it: i'm fine with having RBIs return (this is like reactionary ffball -- like how after WWI people basically were like, america is never fighting in a european war again). i know it's not sabermetric, but RBIs are fuxoring the only good indicator of how many people scored after your hits. also, i'm still sore about basically having to cut pat burrell in september last year because RBIs didn't count. i'd rather have RBI be the anti-sabermetric dinosaur stat instead of HRs. i'm sick of having HRs as a stat. if hits count, SLG% or AVG or OBP or OPS count, or if Total Bases count, there's no reason to have HRs as a stat. it's silly and it overvalues guys who are already valued pretty highly.

stats i think we should look at:
for batters
Total Bases
Stolen bases
some two out of SLG, OB% OPS

my wildcard throwaway: K/AB as a negative stat for batters

for pitchers

wildcard stats: Earned Runs as a neg counting stat. K/9 IP. Having IP as the counting stat that replaces Wins -- because, if you think about it, they're related. Earned Runs could be an option. I'd like to make relief pitchers, all of them, slightly more valuable, and i think ER might help with that. with this system, you can devise a way that you might be able to field a decent pitching lineup with only one or two "ace" starters.

i have a spreadsheet that i made with all of the scoring from my other league already typed in, at least for the 200some hitters and 100some pitchers from that league. there's no way to import that sheet into our league's scoring system, but if anyone wants to mess around with it, i will e-mail it to them. short version of what it showed is that in a league where your IP are important, Brandon Webb is the 18th best starter in baseball. and that chipper jones, when he played last year, was a tank. and for reference, this league was on yahoo, so you can do stats like this in a free league.

top hitters by [ Hits + 1.66*(TB) + 2(BB + HBP) + SB - "Outs'] (outs = AB-H+CS)
LEE, Derrek CHN 638.4
PUJOLS, Albert STL 622.6
ORTIZ, David BOS 566.6
BAY, Jason PIT 533.1
TEIXIERA, Mark TEX 528.2
HELTON, Todd COL 501.5
RAMIREZ, Manny BOS 497.1
CABRERA, Miguel FLA 483
DELGADO, Carlos FLA 474
YOUNG, Mike TEX 468.4
ABREU, B PHI 467.1
THOME, J (2004) PHI 465.7
GILES, Brian SD 465.6
ROLEN, Scott (2004) STL 455.3
GUERRERO, Vladimir ANA 448
DUNN, Adam CIN 447.1
JONES, Andruw ATL 441.4
GIAMBI, Jason NYY 433.2
ENSBERG, Morgan HOU 427.4
KONERKO, Paul CHA 422.6
BURRELL, Pat PHI 421.8
ROBERTS, Brian BAL 421.7

top pitchers by [Saves + K - BB - HBP + 2.75*IP - 4.5*ER)

SANTANA, Johan MIN 496.2
MARTINEZ, Pedro NYM 447.8
PEAVY, Jake SD 424.8
HARDEN, Rich OAK 414.5
WILLIS, Dontrelle FLA 401.3
BUEHRLE, Mark CWS 386.9
ZAMBRANO, Carlos CHN 356.8
JOHNSON, Randy NYY 345.2
COLON, Bartolo ANA 336.4
WEBB, B ARI 335.8
MYERS, Brett PHI 320.6
LOWE, Derek

old blog

i thought my old blog was lost forever but apparently blogger still has it. last post was about whet and i passing our spanish oral language test. good times.

moacir, could i just transfer everything to 1984 produkts and keep going as if nothing had happened? or would i need to use whatever software you use?

Time Stamp?

Pete, can you change the settings so that our time stamps aren't automatically set to PST? I want to know who's posting at 4:30 on a Tuesday morning.

You got questions?

Responding to Pete:

"A commissioner for baseball."
I'd be happy to take the reigns again unless anyone else is dying to do so. Pete doesn't seem to want to, and you know how I love power. Should I just assume that I'm the comish again unless otherwise noted?

"a likely weekend for the draft"
More important here is getting Andy and Carter to commit to getting out to Chicago. Carter, I know you have a wedding to plan in Milwaukee, so just make some excuse about having to check out the hall and come to Chicago for the day.

"rosters. are we going to start doing a keeper league?"
I think the answer to this should be a firm yes. We draft new teams this year, starting over, under the assumption that next year we get to keep a certain number of players.

"stats. i think we all like roto-style 5x5 or 6x6, and..."
I'd be fine with a standard 5x5. This is the reason so many people do this, right? I also would be in favor of some sort of negative stat system.

"a tenth person?"
I feel like we are missing someone who went to the UofC with us that would be perfect. Is Whet staying in Chicago? Is everyone else already committed to this for years to come?

"i hope everyone likes the title of the blog"
Did you notice that Dr. Julian Basheer is in Syriana?

backwards in time

ben, your future-posting is fucking everything up. also re: whatif baseball. i think the problem is that you think you have made a team, but you don't have 25 players and your team isn't done. go sign 2004 cesar izturis for 1.3 million and we can start our league.

glad to see that we're starting the stats debate early this year. though without moacir on the blog, the true plate throwing can't begin. let me throw my hat into the ring:

hits, home runs, rbi, slg, obp, sb + negative rate stat.* ideally RC could be a stat but i doubt yahoo can do that.


era, whip, k, saves, tb + some others? problems: 1) i'd rather not have wins, either, but we need something to replace wins, unless we want to intentionally unbalance the categories and slightly devalue pitching for the draft. 2) i don't know how many other good categories there are. combining obp and slg into straight ops might help this problem.

*negative hitting stats really ought to be rate stats since there isn't an inning maximum. i think we talked about this last year so i'm not going to beat a dead bush.

i plan on being out of the country for some time this summer so i'm probably a bad comish. before we crown one people should think about travel plans.

10th player: coates? if having somewhat outdated views of baseball are an informal requirement for being in our league, he's as good a choice as any.

i want a keeper league. how many slots would we keep? any penalty in draft picks the next year?

pete i would be game for having a bastard child second league that was done via auction. possibly the auction could be had while we were drinking after the draft. that'd be a better auction. how do you decide the order of players to be auctioned? it'd be really awkward to start with paul byrd or something and just stand around looking at each other.


i am going to reiterate my point that i think andy martin should have the right of first refusal on commish. yes, hes not in chicago and yes, his job probably entails actually work and not as much random surfing of the internet, but he did win the last fantasy league. andy or mike. while mike stole my first place trophy he did win so that should mean something. my only big problem with last years stats (although i did use it to my advantage) was that there were hits and average which are basically the same thing. yes, i know you can have a high average and not very many hits or vice versa but still, pick a lane. and i think rbis are not useless. if we used the standard 5x5 i would have no problems. i think we should keep the standard stats or come up with a novel formula. im not sure how novel we can get given the free yahoo parameters but as novel as possible. i also think we should have a keeper league using our players from last year. my team was really good and i had arod. i'm not going to hold my breath that pete will draft randy johnson first again this year. this years randy johnson is probably kevin millwood or aj burnett so maybe pete will draft one of those guys in the second round (ala jamie moyer).

the sox got all that money from winning the fucking world series. the investors finally decided to start re-investing their bags of money instead of putting them in 30 year T-Bills and War Bonds. 95 million dollars is right size payroll for a supposedly major market team that wants to win another world series and possibly draw 3 million fans this year. I know i have my 13 game ozzie plan. garland for less than 10 mil a year could be a steal in this post aj burnett/kris benson/jared weaver/carl pavano market. some chatter the sox could trade contreras and some other guys for tejada. while that would push the payroll over 100 mil the sox would be off the hook this year. And they have other hitters to protect Konerko and Thome. Dye can hit 25-30 homers again and the sky is the limit with Iguchi (ok fine, maybe 20 homers is the limit). Their starting outfield will be Brian Anderson/Joe Borchard/ Rob Mackowiak at center and Pods and Dye in the wings.

indians are going to choke again this year. like the whitesox did last year except for without the eventual world series sweep. indians and twins won't win 92 games. the sox will win ~149 games, give or take a few.

blogger for word

Holy crap. I can just found out I type my posts in word and they will be posted in the blog. Now I can look like im working but not.  One of these days I will get through an entire day of work without doing any work. I have come close, but this might push me over the edge.

fantasy fantasy and fantasy baseball?

i am assuming that is what this blog is about? while i am many things i must admit i am not a blogger so im unfamiliar with the protocol. and is deep space nine that star trek show from the 90's? i hate star trek.

jon garland?

where did the white sox get all this money? why would you only start spending money after you won your first WS in 900 years. also, are they going to be able to afford hitters to go with thome and konerko. because right now i think that weird white dude with blond hair is in the starting lineup. the outfielder guy. not ross gload or joe borchard. both of whose last names are common nouns with random consonants added to the front.

fear the new hypoallergenic indians starting rotation of sabathia, westbrook, lee, byrd and johnson. if we got someone named "lady" we would have "lady byrd johnson" to go with le-bron james. we also need a right fielder and a third baseman and a first baseman. basically just all the power positions. amazing that we won 93 games with that offense and scott elarton being allowed to pitch every week.

predictions for this year: blue jays are going to score 800 runs with zero stolen bases or sacrifices. they are also going to win no more than 80 games.

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

go crazy

topics for discussion in the comments or elsewhere:

1. A commissioner for baseball. all this entails is checking the league daily so you can approve trades, pretty much. even every two days probably would cut the mustard. and handling the money if there's money to be handled. this year i don't think ben even had to handle money, and what money he did handle, we know what happened. if my willingness to run fantasy fantasy baseball leagues and to start a non-mandatory blog about this is any indication, i'm probably going to wind up being commissioner.

2. a likely weekend for the draft, which is obviously going to be in chicago sometime after spring training is well underway, so we know who's starting and shit.

3. rosters. are we going to start doing a keeper league? can we have an auction, finally, like i have been saying for three years. how many guys per team, can we have minor league slots so we can draft the next felix hernandez and then keep him for six years.

4. stats. i think we all like roto-style 5x5 or 6x6, and everyone seems to be in favor of a balanced rate-stat/counting-stat thing. now would be a time when you could voice your non-compliance with that. i want to have some negative stats, if we could. and i'm in favor of ditching wins, but that might not be possible. final decisions can be made by a vote (if anyone tries to say they'll quit the league over scoring, my head will explode)

5. a tenth person?my friend nathan is a good guy who most of you have met who will absolutely pay attention to his team, unlike other people i have dug up (ben adams, ranere, bharat, zimpleman). he's also probably better than us, since he is a sportswriter and his job is basically to pay attention to things that make you better at fantasy sports. any thoughts.

6. i hope everyone likes the title of the blog -- it's supposed to make people at work think you're a big dork.